HALT-C Formula for Predicting Risk of HCC

Our predictive model relies on demographic variables (age and race), lab tests (alkaline phosphatase and platelet count), smoking history and presence of esophageal varices*. The formula calculates a score (R) that is used to put a patient into one of three risk categories:

• Low risk: 5 year cumulative risk of HCC <1%
• Intermediate risk: 5 year cumulative risk of HCC 1-5%
• High Risk: 5 year cumulative risk of HCC >5%

The formula for predicting risk is as follows:
Risk score [R] = 0.04926 x age (in years) + black race (black=1, nonblack=0) x 0.71203 + alkaline phosphatase (U/L) x 0.00560 + esophageal varices (present=1; absent=0) x 0.77697 + ever smoked (ever smoked = 1, never smoked = 0) x 0.74897 + platelet count (x103/mm3) x -0.01070.

The three risk categories are

• R<= 1.50 Low Risk
• R 1.51-3.25 Intermediate Risk
• R >3.25 High Risk

The ranges/proportions in our analysis were as follows:

Age 19-80
Black race 18%
Alkaline phosphatase 20-478
Esophageal varices 26%
Ever Smoked 76%
Platelet count 46-426

Please enter the following 6 values then click Calculate/Recalculate button:

Age (in years)
Black race (black=1, nonblack=0)
Alkaline phosphatase (U/L)
Esophageal varices (present=1, absent=0)**
Ever smoked (ever smoked = 1, never smoked = 0)
Platelets (103/mm3)
R
Risk Group (Low, Intermediate, High)

         

* Lok AS, Seeff LB, Morgan TR, Di Bisceglie AM, Sterling RK, Curto TM, Everson GT, Lindsay KL, Lee WM, Bonkovsky HL, Dienstag JL, Ghany MG, Morishima C, Goodman ZD, and the HALT-C Trial Group. Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Associated Risk Factors in Hepatitis C-Related Advanced Liver Disease. Gastroenterology 2009 Jan; 136(1):138-148.

** If information on presence or absence of esophageal varices is not known, try calculating the risk score first with 0 (absent) then with 1 (present).  The resulting number is a range of risk for that patient.